Much of the diplomatic, trade and institutional activity between the Nordic countries, the EU and parts of Asia during the past tumultuous year has been business as usual. But given the increasingly confusing ruptures in geopolitical alliances, I think the mindset of the diplomatic staff and business leaders involved in these activities has changed.
Recent tensions in the transatlantic relationship have not triggered any dramatic European pivot. But they have accelerated a quieter process that was already under way: broadening partnerships, redistributing diplomatic attention, and making sure Europe has options.
There has been no big speeches or formal strategy documents. Instead, it can be seen in practical decisions: embassies being reorganised, trade missions being prioritised, coordinated EU visits taking place, and cooperation deepening in very specific sectors. Many of these developments are stories that ScandAsia has reported on over the past few months.
Looking back at ScandAsia’s recent coverage of international relations, it is noticeable that Denmark has decided to strengthen its presence in Vietnam while closing its embassy in Myanmar. It is also notable that when Finland’s prime minister is travelling to China, he is accompanied by a sizeable business delegation. And beyond the EU countries of Denmark, Sweden and Finland, Norway’s ambassador to ASEAN has recently held talks with ASEAN’s secretary-general on strengthening partnership frameworks.
I also think it matters how this is being done. Rather than individual countries freelancing or striking out on their own, the EU increasingly seems to be used as the vehicle. To me this looks like Europe widening its engagement with Asia without framing it as a break with existing alliances.
Taken individually, none of these stories signal anything dramatic. But I am sure it is on everybody’s minds that the fast-fluctuating tariff threats and political uncertainty add a new urgency to strengthening relations elsewhere. I think we will see more of this — and, frankly, it is hard to see it as anything but a prudent response to a more uncertain international environment.
The damage to the transatlantic EU-US aliance is irreversible.
