The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (FE) has released its latest threat report, revealing a grim picture of China’s growing influence and its potential risks to Denmark and the West. The report indicates that China’s assertive stance under the leadership of Xi Jinping creates a foundation for increasing conflicts with Denmark and other Western nations.
FE’s report dedicates an entire chapter to China, marking the nation as a significant threat. Jonas Parello-Plesner, director of the Alliance of Democracies and an expert on security policy, emphasized that the tightening relationship between China and Russia contributes to this heightened threat landscape. “We are witnessing a new axis of autocrats forming between Xi Jinping and Putin. This is clearly articulated in FE’s report. China poses a threat to us, and the tone towards China has sharpened,” he stated.
China’s support for Russia
In its findings, FE reports that China supports Russia’s military efforts, enhancing its collaboration with Putin. This close partnership increases China’s relevance to security issues in Denmark and across Europe. Parello-Plesner pointed out that the presence of the Chinese vessel Yi Peng 3, suspected of cable sabotage, underscores these growing tensions.
“The threat from China has intensified. The war in Ukraine has been crucial, as Xi Jinping blamed NATO for security challenges in Europe even before the conflict began,” he explained.
Potential conflict over Taiwan
The report also concludes that China is preparing for potential confrontation with the West, particularly concerning the issue of Taiwan. China views Taiwan as part of its territory, despite it functioning as an independent nation. FE indicates, “China is simultaneously preparing its military to win a war over Taiwan, with 2027 set as a target for achieving military readiness.”
While FE assesses the likelihood of such conflict occurring within the next five years as reduced, it cautions that if war erupts, it could drastically alter Denmark’s security landscape. “If China initiates such a war with U.S. involvement, it would likely have significant consequences, fundamentally changing Denmark’s security conditions. The U.S.’s capacity and willingness to contribute to European security would diminish,” the Danish Defence Intelligence Service report states.
Economic implications of conflict
Furthermore, the assessment warns that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could lead to severe economic repercussions, especially if the West imposes sanctions on China. China accounts for 15 percent of the EU’s external trade, and both China and Taiwan are pivotal in global supply chains, particularly for semiconductor production.
Parello-Plesner does not foresee a conflict between China and Taiwan in the immediate future; however, he acknowledges that it remains a possibility. He hopes the report will serve as an eye-opener, reflecting how China now occupies a more significant space in the threat landscape. “We have shifted from viewing China as distant, engaging in trade, to recognizing the immediate threats it poses,” he said.
Spying and economic dominance
The report further outlines risks of espionage targeting businesses and highlights the substantial state subsidies fueling China’s economic clout. Peter Bay Kirkegaard, senior consultant at Danish Industry (DI), resonates with these findings. “The report presents a familiar picture that businesses consider when dealing with Chinese counterparts and hiring new personnel,” he noted. He warned that the worst-case scenario for Danish companies would be the deterioration of relations to the point where trade with China could shut down entirely.
As Denmark navigates these rising threats, collaboration between authorities, businesses, and the public becomes crucial in addressing the complexities of modern geopolitical tensions and securing the nation’s interests.
Source: DR
