Danish business confidence in China improved slightly at the end of 2025, but the latest figures reveal a clear divide between large companies and small and medium-sized enterprises.
According to the Danish Business Outlook on China (DBOC) Index, the aggregated sentiment index rose to 51.40 in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from 50.78 in Q3. While the index closed the year in positive territory, sentiment fluctuated significantly over the course of 2025.
The index measures changes in short-term outlook among Danish companies with activities in China and is based on responses from company members of the Danish Chamber of Commerce in China and the Danish-Chinese Business Forum, all holding a Danish CVR number.
Large firms back in positive territory
The Q4 results show diverging experiences depending on company size. Large firms reported a marked improvement in outlook, with their index score rising from 47.90 in Q3 to 51.50 in Q4, moving back into positive territory.
Small and medium-sized enterprises, however, saw sentiment decline over the same period. The SME index dropped from 53.25 in Q3 to 48.44 in Q4, returning to levels last seen in the second quarter of 2025.
Despite the overall improvement in the aggregated index, the figures suggest that confidence is recovering more unevenly across the Danish business community.
Improved outlook among Denmark-based companies
The report also highlights differences based on company location. While China-based companies slightly softened their outlook in Q4, Denmark-based firms reported a stronger improvement, with their index score increasing from 48.86 in Q3 to 53.13 in Q4.
Overall, the DBOC data indicates that the modest recovery in sentiment towards the end of the year was driven primarily by larger and Denmark-based companies.
Sectoral differences remain
Sentiment also varied significantly across sectors. Health and life science, agriculture and food, design and lifestyle, and environment and water all reported an improved outlook in Q4. The environment and water sector stood out with an expected increase of 32.86 percent.
In contrast, the energy sector and, more notably, logistics and maritime experienced a decline in sentiment during the quarter.
Market access tops priorities
Looking ahead to 2026, companies were asked which areas of China’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan are most relevant for their strategic planning. Market access was cited as the top priority by 28.57 percent of respondents.
Green transition and sustainability followed at 24.49 percent, while 22.45 percent highlighted supply chain diversification as a key concern. Innovation and financial reform and the digital economy were ranked lower.
About the index
The DBOC Index was developed in 2020, with the first survey conducted in January 2021. It is a diffusion index tracking changes in outlook based on companies’ assessments of China as a market for sales and procurement, as well as a location for manufacturing, services, and research and development.
The Q4 2025 survey was conducted between 18 November and 9 December 2025 with the participation of 49 Danish companies located in either China or Denmark.
Going forward, the DBOC Index will be published twice a year instead of quarterly, while maintaining its focus on providing business intelligence on Denmark–China trade and investment relations.
Source: Denmark in China
