Tourism at risk: Thailand could lose millions of visitors

Thailand’s tourism sector faces a potential drop in foreign visitors as global disruptions threaten the industry’s recovery. Photo: Suvarnabhumi Airport

Thailand’s tourism sector, a pillar of its economy, is under threat as global travel faces disruption from rising fuel costs and the ongoing Middle East war, Bangkok Post reports.

The Ministry of Tourism and Sports warns that the country could see three million fewer foreign visitors in 2026, nearly 10% of last year’s total.

“The heart of tourism is the journey, and to make that journey you need fuel,” said Natthriya Thaweevong, permanent secretary of the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, to the paper.

“Everyone is affected and faces the same high costs. We’ll lose tourists from all over.”

Economic impact and visitor numbers

Thailand had set a target of 35 million foreign visitors for 2026, but the conflict and rising airline costs could push numbers back to 2023 levels, around 28 million.

The shortfall could cost the economy 150 billion baht, roughly 10% of last year’s foreign tourist revenue.

Natthriya Thaweevong, permanent secretary of Thailand’s Ministry of Tourism and Sports, warns that rising global fuel costs and ongoing conflicts could cut the country’s tourist arrivals by millions. Photo: Public Relations Department

Even if the global conflict eases soon, the ministry expects a loss of one to two million tourists.

Asian visitors remain the largest group, while Europe and other long-haul markets are still recovering from pandemic-related travel disruptions.

Diversifying tourism

To cushion the blow, authorities are promoting medical tourism and targeting short-haul travelers from neighboring Asian countries. Hospitals such as Bangkok Hospital and Bumrungrad Hospital are highlighting world-class treatments as part of their outreach.

Domestic tourism incentives are also being considered, including tax allowances for tourism spending, debt relief for hotels, and fuel rationing for tour buses.

“Now, with the war affecting things, this growth driver might be faltering. But we have to keep going,” Thaweevong said.

Tourism contributes about 12% of Thailand’s GDP, making the sector’s recovery critical. With international tensions and costs rising, the coming months will be decisive for Thailand’s return to pre-pandemic tourist levels.

The hope now is to attract wealthy people from the Middle East who want to escape the war.

Campaigns that were previously aimed at the US and Europe will now instead focus on the Middle East.